আরও দেখুন
24.09.2026 05:04 AM
The GBP/USD pair also showed a fairly sharp decline on Wednesday without any local justification. Business activity indices for services and manufacturing for September were released in the UK and the US, but they could not even theoretically have triggered a pound decline and dollar rise. British indices were generally neutral, and the US indices were released practically in the evening, when the pair had already fallen 100 pips. Thus, the market once again lifted the US currency by 1 cent out of nowhere. The downtrend persists, and the main reason for the decline remains the Federal Reserve's hawkish shift in monetary policy. The market is not taking into account that the Bank of England could also raise its key rate twice at the next three meetings. We consider the pair's downward move completely illogical and frankly inertial. The market has again entered a phase where the dollar rises because it is bought, and it is bought because it rises.
On the 5-minute TF on Wednesday, four trading signals were formed. At the start of the day, the pair consolidated and rebounded from the 1.3319–1.3331 area, allowing short positions to be opened. Profit on shorts could be taken around 1.3259–1.3267, but the buy signal in the form of a rebound proved false. The next sell signal allowed opening new short positions, which also turned out profitable.
On the hourly TF, GBP/USD continues its downward trend, which has become a full-fledged trend. The fundamental backdrop for the dollar and the pound changed sharply last week when the Fed signaled readiness to continue tightening monetary policy. As a result, the dollar's prospects in the second half of 2026 have once again become much more favorable. However, no other factors are supporting the US dollar. The dollar has been rising for three weeks on a single factor.
On Thursday, novice traders can remain in short positions with a target of 1.3175–1.3180, since the price has consolidated below the 1.3259–1.3267 area. Open long positions targeting 1.3259–1.3267 if price rebounds from the 1.3175–1.3180 area.
On the 5-minute TF you can trade the levels 1.3096–1.3107, 1.3175–1.3180, 1.3259–1.3267, 1.3319–1.3331, 1.3380–1.3386, 1.3456–1.3476, 1.3587–1.3598, 1.3631–1.3641. No important events are scheduled in the UK on Thursday, and the US will release a secondary report on initial jobless claims. Thus, the macroeconomic backdrop will not support the pound or the dollar today, which traders currently do not seem concerned about.
Price levels (areas) of support and resistance serve as targets for opening buy or sell trades or as sources of signals.
Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that show the current trend and the preferred trading direction.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) — the histogram and signal line — is an auxiliary indicator that can also provide signals.
Important speeches and reports (listed in the news calendar) can significantly influence currency pair movements. Therefore, during their release, traders should approach trading with utmost caution, or exit the market to avoid sudden reversals against the preceding move.
Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.
