The US dollar is facing increasing pressure due to the rapid divergence in expectations regarding interest rates in the US and the eurozone. The European Central Bank is preparing for a rate hike in 2026, while the Federal Reserve plans to continue its rate cuts, contributing to the greenback’s protracted weakness.

Swap markets anticipate a 0.06 percentage point increase in ECB interest rates by the end of 2026—a dramatic turnaround in just one week. This reflects confidence in the resilience of inflation and decent economic growth in the eurozone. At the same time, the Federal Reserve is attempting to ensure a "soft landing," with two more rate cuts expected.

Global dynamics are intensifying pressure on the US dollar. Australia and Canada are considering rate hikes, while the Bank of England is expected to halt rate cuts by the summer of 2026. Analysts say that major central banks, except the US, will revise their agenda next year, making 2026 a tipping point. If the gap in interest rates narrows, the demand for the low-yielding dollar could drop even further. In 2025, the US currency had already plunged by more than 8% against major currencies.