Investment bank Jefferies cut its price target for Tesla shares to $375, warning investors of a new structural risk. With growing market expectations of an eventual merger between the automaker and SpaceX, TSLA shares risk becoming little more than a tracking stock for the space company’s valuation.

In analyzing the fallout from SpaceX’s recent high‑profile IPO, Jefferies noted a shift in shareholder incentives. If the narrative of an imminent asset tie‑up takes hold, investors may start using Tesla stock solely to minimize dilution of their stakes. As a result, TSLA's valuation mechanism could begin to mirror SpaceX and become detached from Tesla’s own operational performance. The lowered target implies roughly a 6% downside from current levels.

The broker put the situation bluntly: “Estimates and forecasts remain detached from reality.” Jefferies analysts do not expect this disconnect to be resolved anytime soon.

Jefferies projects financial results below the market consensus for the coming years. Unlike the optimistic camp on Wall Street that anticipates a sharp revenue ramp, the bank assumes the initial rollout of robotaxis and humanoid robots will create loss‑making operations rather than generate profits.

A large part of Tesla’s premium versus traditional automakers rests on the belief that humanoids and autonomous taxis will deliver high‑margin revenues. Jefferies does not dispute the long‑term potential of these technologies, but stresses that the market is stubbornly ignoring the inevitable near‑term investment phase and the heavy losses that will accompany it.