Trade Breakdown and Trading Advice for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 158.16 price level occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly upward from the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar.

Since there are no US economic data releases in the second half of the day, events related to Greenland will remain in focus. At the same time, tensions persist in trade relations between the United States and the European Union. Trump's statements about introducing new 10% tariffs will almost certainly trigger a response from the EU, thereby putting additional pressure on the dollar. However, given that all of this is more likely to affect the euro than the yen, many traders will continue to monitor statements from representatives of the Bank of Japan, trying to understand how serious intervention in the national currency could be if it continues to weaken. In recent days, such statements by policymakers have led to some strengthening of the yen against the dollar, but the situation continues to require close attention.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1:

Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the entry point around 158.05 is reached (green line on the chart), with a growth target at 158.80 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 158.80, I will exit long positions and open sell positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point move from that level. Further growth of the pair can be expected in continuation of the trend.Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2:

I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 157.75 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels 158.05 and 158.80 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1:

Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break (update) of the 157.75 level (red line on the chart), which would lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 157.10 level, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open buy positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 point move from that level. Pressure on the pair is unlikely to return today.Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2:

I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 158.05 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels 157.75 and 157.10 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument
• Thick green line – estimated price where Take Profit can be set or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument
• Thick red line – estimated price where Take Profit can be set or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones

Important:

Beginner Forex traders must be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly—especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.