Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are only a few macroeconomic publications scheduled for Friday, but almost all are significant. We will skip the reports from Germany, which have no chance of influencing market sentiment. Attention should be focused on American data. Three important reports will be published today: Non-Farm Payrolls, the unemployment rate, and wage growth. The first two reports require no introduction, but even the wage report is important as it directly affects the inflation rate. If wages are rising quickly (especially with low unemployment), consumer demand and spending also increase, allowing businesses to raise prices, which in turn fuels inflation.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

From the fundamental events on Friday, we can note the speech by Federal Reserve representative Thomas Barkin, but there is hardly any interest in this event at the moment. The Fed has shown a clear reluctance to tighten monetary policy in recent weeks. We have already heard several statements from FOMC officials indicating that inflation will continue to slow over time, a subtle hint of abandoning further rate hikes. Furthermore, the US economy is slowing, the labor market is weakening, and raising the key interest rate would lead to an even steeper decline.

The geopolitical backdrop remains concerning. Another ceasefire has been broken, the conflict has resumed and is ongoing, and the US and Iran continue to exchange strikes regularly, while negotiations are currently nonexistent. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed or partially closed, Yemeni Houthis maintain the blockade of Saudi Arabia, and Tehran threatens to completely close the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait if Washington attempts to pressure it again. The only glimmer of hope is Donald Trump's constant promises of a soon-to-be-concluded deal for Hormuz and the nuclear agreement. Strangely enough, these statements are enough to cause oil prices to fall, but the currency market hardly reacts to them.

General Conclusions:

On the last trading day of the week, currency pairs may show very volatile movements, but only during the American trading session. The euro can be traded today from the area of 1.1527-1.1531, while the British pound can be traded from the area of 1.3456-1.3476. However, today technical factors will not take priority.

Main Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is assessed by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or level breakthrough). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades are opened around a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can form a multitude of false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be disregarded.
4. When trading based on MACD signals on the hourly timeframe, it is advisable to do so only when volatility is high and a trend line or channel supports the trend.
5. If two levels are too close to each other (from 5 to 20 pips), they should be regarded as a support or resistance area.
6. After a 15-pip move in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set to break even.

What the Charts Show:

Support and resistance price levels (areas) are the targets when opening buy or sell orders or sources of signals.

Red lines denote channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate in which direction trading is currently favored.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (as listed in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be approached with utmost caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the preceding movement.

Beginners in Forex trading should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.