Review of Trades and Tips for Trading the European Currency

The price test at 1.1536 occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had just begun to move downward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair fell by 20 pips.

The low number of jobless claims set the tone for trading yesterday and supported the dollar. For the week ending August 1, the figure was 199,000, up only 1,000 from the previous week's revised level, and remained below the psychological threshold of 200,000. Since the increase in claims signals a weakening labor market while the consistently low level indicates its strength, the report alleviated concerns about employment slowdowns and provided support for the US currency. Against this backdrop, the euro lost ground. A solid labor market strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve would not rush to ease policy, which increased the dollar's attractiveness and pushed the EUR/USD pair downward.

Today, the euro enters the day with a modest agenda, with the main items being Germany's industrial production data and the trade balance. Production data helps assess the output of German factories, while the trade balance reflects the relationship between exports and imports. However, both releases rarely serve as standalone drivers for the market. Therefore, it is unlikely they will significantly affect the direction. With such weak reports, the dynamics of the single currency will primarily depend on external factors.

Regarding intraday strategy, I will primarily implement Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buying Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible when the price reaches around 1.1533 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.1556. At 1.1556, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Growth in the euro can only be expected after good data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning its rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.1517 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect a rise to the corresponding levels of 1.1533 and 1.1556.

Selling Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches 1.1517 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1494, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pair will return today in case of weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.1533, with the MACD indicator in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward market reversal. One can expect a decline to the corresponding levels of 1.1517 and 1.1494.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated price where take profit can be set, or profit can be realized, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated price where take profit can be set, or profit can be realized, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner forex traders need to make entry decisions very cautiously. Before key fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not practice money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.