Lihat juga
12.03.2026 07:57 AM
If 2025 is remembered by the market as the era of "tariff diplomacy," March 2026 has officially opened the age of energy terror. Tehran is no longer playing "an eye for an eye." The statement by the spokesman for Iran's Central Command about a shift to a strategy of continuous strikes is not mere rhetoric — it is a death sentence for the previous logistics in the Persian Gulf. President Masoud Pezeshkian has issued an ultimatum that Washington would prefer to ignore. Iran demands recognition of rights, reparations and international guarantees. While politicians haggle, the market is tallying losses. Attacks on the Mayuree Naree and Star Gwyneth have elevated the shipping threat level to "critical."
The most painful development for the West is the widening list of targets. Iran has openly announced a hunt for the infrastructure of American big tech — from Nvidia to Palantir and Microsoft. When Silicon Valley is squarely in the sights of Iranian proxies, an oil rally becomes only a matter of time. Gasoline prices in the States have already jumped 20%, and that is only a prelude to the promised $200 per barrel. Meanwhile, Donald Trump keeps playing his war game, promising to finish it "at any moment." But the market trusts neither his tweets nor his phone calls — it trusts JPMorgan's numbers and The Economist's forecasts. And those figures look catastrophic.
Washington has allocated $20 billion for ship insurance. But the real bill to cover the stranded tankers is $352 billion. That's a financial chasm you can't fill with promises. Naval escort? With the US Navy's current regional resources (30 ships in the area), freeing 320 stuck vessels would take 2.5 years. The market doesn't have those years — it doesn't even have months. The IEA's attempt to stabilise the situation by releasing reserves (3 million barrels per day) looks like trying to put out a forest fire with a water pistol, given that Gulf production could fall by 10 million b/d in the coming weeks.
The end of the era of cheap commodities
The logic of the 2026 crisis is terrifyingly simple and merciless. A full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, begun on March 2, unleashed a ripple effect that cannot be stopped by signing a peace treaty. Tankers don't depart — storage fills — refineries cut runs — production is forcibly slashed by 50–80%. The main risk isn't the immediate shortfall, it's the "technological death" of fields. Shutting wells is not like turning a key in a lock. It is irreversible damage to the reservoir that guarantees systemic shortage for years. For now, the world has roughly three weeks of stocks before the system is completely clogged. After that, oil at $150–$200 will be more than the forecast...
The point of no return. The problem is not politics but reservoir physics. Turning off high?yield wells starts a degradation process:
If production is "switched off" now, restarting will take from 2 to 8 weeks. Yet many fields may never return to prior levels. Losses of 10%–30% of flow will become the new normal. The situation is worse for LNG plants: a one-and-a?half-month restart cycle turns a temporary pause into an industrial coma. We are witnessing not merely a supply disruption but a deliberate destruction of global production capacity. The longer the blockade continues, the deeper the "scar" on the body of the global oil supply.
The Middle East loses about $2.5 billion daily just on "locked" energy alone. But that's only the iceberg's tip. Everything is collapsing — from tourism and luxury?car rentals to the services sector. Capital is fleeing the region faster than Iranian drones can reach their targets. But the true epicentre of the shock is in Asia. China, India, and Japan were the first to feel the "Hormuz noose." Rationing protocols for energy use are no longer dystopian scenarios but the reality of March 2026. When Asia's energy heart stops, global exports stall. We see a classic cross?sector chain reaction:
This is not just a crisis — it is a live demolition of global supply chains. Let's drop the optimism: no scenario in nature compensates for the lost 20 million barrels per day. The world faces a shortage that cannot be filled. No pipeline from Saudi Arabia or the UAE can digest the flow that used to go through Hormuz. There are simply no viable reroutes for Qatari LNG and Iraqi oil. If the crisis drags on for six months, we will see not just a recession but the largest collapse since 2008. Tens of trillions of market capitalisation and the stability of debt markets — already feverish with inflation expectations — are at stake. The Strait of Hormuz has become the place where the financial imbalances of recent years meet hard physical shortage.
And it seems this meeting will have no happy ending for anyone. The International Energy Agency is taking an unprecedented step by releasing 400 million barrels onto the market. This is not merely an intervention — it is an attempt to douse the Hormuz fire with "paper" oil from inventories. France is tapping its reserves (14.5 million barrels), trying to spare voters the pain at the pumps. Ursula von der Leyen and Emmanuel Macron, in one voice, insist on maintaining sanctions against Russia, even though the first ten days of war with Iran have already cost the EU an extra €3 billion. But how long can the European economy sustain this "Hormuz" bill?
Donald Trump calls the US "the hottest country," but the recent economic data points to a severe thermal burn. February's decline of 92,000 jobs is only the tip of the iceberg. Revisions to prior months are shocking: December and January together lost 62,000 jobs compared with their initial reports. The point of no return was passed in May 2025. It was then, after the announcement of the "Day of Liberation from Common Sense" (large-scale tariffs), that the labor market slid into a patchy stagnation. Over the past 10 months, the net change in payrolls has been... minus 19,000. If this is a "MAGA breakthrough," it's clearly toward a 2008-style depression. Strip out healthcare and social services (+533k jobs), and the US private sector looks like ruins: -307k.
This is the worst dynamic since the Great Recession, excluding the pandemic. Sectoral breakdown (May 2025–Feb 2026):
Markets ignore reality while waiting for TACO
In fact, the economy is not the S&P 500, and the "May crack" will sooner or later force the Fed to choose between saving banks and saving people. The situation in March 2026 resembles attempts to rebuild an airplane engine in flight. After the Supreme Court technically knocked out the first version of the tariffs in February (striking down IEEPA levies), the White House responded with "Plan B" — temporary 10–15% tariffs under Section 122. Where has Trump's "divide and rule" approach led him?
While markets try to digest the oil shock, David Rosenberg — one of Wall Street's most consistent bears — points to a far more fatal problem. In his view, US resilience in 2025–2026 relied on two "crutches":
"Trump's single big and glorious bill," the crowning piece of his economic policy, did give GDP a boost — but the effect is not permanent. When the tax refunds of this year are spent over two to three months, the economy will face a vacuum. We have squeezed every drop from the fiscal lemon; now the glass is empty. Rosenberg predicts "the most predictable recession in history." 2027 risks being the year when the bill for the current feast finally comes due.
Investments in AI accounted for up to 90% of recent economic growth, creating a powerful wealth effect. But in 2026, we appear to be hitting a ceiling. The four horsemen of the tech apocalypse — Amazon, Google, Meta and Microsoft — plan to spend $600 billion this year. However, Rosenberg warns these expenditures will inevitably fall in 2027: you cannot build data centres forever. Politics adds fuel to the fire. The November 2026 midterms could paralyse the legislative branch. If Democrats regain control of Congress, any new Trump initiatives to stimulate growth would be blocked. As a result, 2027 could arrive without either a technological or a government growth engine. As Rosenberg dryly notes: "Enjoy the boom while it lasts."
12 March, 02:50 / Japan / Business activity index, Q1 / prev.: 3.8% / actual: 4.7% / forecast: 5.5% / USD/JPY – down
Japan's large manufacturer business activity index rose to 4.7% in Q4 2025 from 3.8% previously. The result is the highest in a year and beats analyst expectations, confirming resilience in the industrial sector. The positive momentum persists despite trade frictions and fiscal risks. Business sentiment is supported by expectations of further monetary tightening by the Bank of Japan, which may implement several rate hikes in 2026. If the index reaches the forecasted 5.5% in Q1, the yen could strengthen versus the dollar.
12 March, 03:00 / Australia / Consumer inflation expectations, March / prev.: 4.6% / actual: 5.0% / forecast: 4.2% / AUD/USD – down
Australian consumer inflation expectations rose to 5.0% in February 2026 from 4.6% a month earlier, the highest since mid-last year, following the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to raise its cash rate to 3.85%. The increase reflects higher service?sector costs and a tight labor market late in 2025. The central bank expects inflation to remain above the 2–3% target band for an extended period and said additional measures may be needed. If expectations fall to the 4.2% forecast, the Australian dollar would come under pressure.
12 March, 03:01 / UK / RICS House Price Balance, February / prev.: -13% / actual: -10% / forecast: -9% / GBP/USD – up
RICS data show the UK house price balance improved to -10% in January 2026 from -13% in December, marking the third consecutive monthly improvement and the strongest reading since early summer. Although overall activity remains low, prices rose in parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland, and declines slowed in London and the southeast. Analysts see signs of a gradual market recovery after a difficult period. If February's balance confirms the -9% forecast, sterling should strengthen.
12 March, 15:30 / Canada / Exports in the trade balance, January (deficit) / prev.: CAD 63.95bn / actual: CAD 65.63bn / forecast: CAD 66.00bn / USD/CAD – down
Canadian exports rose 2.6% in December 2025 to CAD 65.63bn, fully recovering from a November dip. Metals and minerals led the gain, up 18%, driven by active shipments of unrefined gold and silver to the US and UK. Aerospace and transport equipment exports jumped 20.5%. Despite a 1.0% drop in energy exports, total shipments outside the US reached record levels. If January exports rise to the CAD 66.00bn forecast, the Canadian dollar should strengthen versus the US dollar.
12 March, 15:30 / Canada / Imports in the trade balance, January (deficit) / prev.: CAD 66.53bn / actual: CAD 66.93bn / forecast: CAD 66.90bn / USD/CAD – up
Canadian imports rose 0.6% in December 2025 to CAD 66.93bn. More than half of major goods categories contributed to the increase, with the biggest gains in the auto sector and metal ore purchases. Passenger car and SUV imports rose 12.1%, and precious metals imports more than doubled. The positive trend was partly offset by weaker consumer goods and chemical demand. If January imports confirm the CAD 66.90bn forecast, the Canadian dollar could weaken.
12 March, 15:30 / Canada / Wholesale sales, January (final) / prev.: 2.0% / actual: 2.0% / forecast: -0.6% / USD/CAD – up
Wholesale sales in Canada rose 2.0% in December 2025 and held steady. Preliminary estimates indicate a slowdown in January 2026, mainly driven by lower automotive sales (vehicles, parts and accessories). Current figures are provisional and based on responses from about two-thirds of surveyed firms. If January's reading comes in at -0.6% as forecast, the Canadian dollar would be pressured.
12 March, 15:30 / US / Building permits, January (prelim.) / prev.: 1.388m / actual: 1.455m / forecast: 1.410m / USDX (6?currency USD index) – down
US building permits rose 4.8% in December 2025 to 1.455 million, the highest since March, with multi-family housing driving a 20% gain. Regionally, the Northeast and West saw notable increases, while the South weakened. Despite year?end momentum, the 2025 annual total was below the prior period. If January permits match the 1.410m forecast, the dollar index would ease.
12 March, 15:30 / US / Housing starts, January / prev.: 1.322m / actual: 1.404m / forecast: 1.350m / USDX – down
US housing starts rose 6.2% in December 2025 to 1.404 million, beating expectations and hitting a high since July, signalling a recovery from autumn lows. Single?family and multi?family construction both increased, with the West seeing the sharpest jump (over 37%). If January starts land near the 1.350m forecast, the dollar index should continue to decline.
12 March, 15:30 / US / Exports in the trade balance, January (deficit) / prev.: USD 292.3bn / actual: USD 287.3bn / forecast: USD 286.0bn / USDX – down
US exports fell 1.7% in December 2025 to USD 287.3bn, a four?month low mainly due to weaker non-monetary gold shipments. Semiconductor, pharmaceutical, and travel services exports continued to grow. For all of 2025, exports rose 6.2%, driven by natural gas shipments and intellectual property income. If January exports confirm the USD 286.0bn forecast, the dollar index would ease.
12 March, 15:30 / US / Imports in the trade balance, January (deficit) / prev.: USD 345.3bn / actual: USD 357.6bn / forecast: USD 351.0bn / USDX – down
US imports of goods and services rose 3.6% in December 2025 to USD 357.6bn, the highest since July, driven by purchases of industrial commodities, oil and computer components, offsetting weaker consumer?goods and pharmaceutical demand. The record USD 4.33 trillion annual import total reflected front-loading ahead of tariffs introduced earlier in the year. If January imports confirm the USD 351.0bn forecast, the dollar index would soften.
12 March, 15:30 / US / Initial jobless claims (weekly) / prev.: 213k / actual: 213k / forecast: 215k / USDX – down
US initial jobless claims remained at 213k in late February 2026, better than market expectations and well below two-year averages. Continued low layoff levels keep the labor market stable, although repeated claims rose to 1.868m. Slower hiring and fewer federal job openings support a moderate labor dynamic. If claims rise to the 215k forecast, the dollar index would decline.
13 March, 10:00 / Germany / Producer Price Index (PPI), February / prev.: 1.5% / actual: 1.2% / forecast: 1.2% / EUR/USD – volatile German producer prices rose 1.2% year-on-year in January 2026, marking the fourteenth consecutive month of increases. The main inflationary driver was a sharp jump in prices for non?ferrous metals and ores, up more than 40%. In the food segment, meat and confectionery prices rose, while cereal and dairy prices eased. Month-on-month price dynamics significantly exceeded analysts' expectations. If February confirms the 1.2% forecast, the release is likely to generate volatility for the euro.
13 March, 10:00 / UK / GDP growth, January / prev.: 1.2% / actual: 0.7% / forecast: 0.9% / GBP/USD – up The UK economy grew 0.7% year-on-year in December 2025, the weakest expansion since mid?2024. Growth slowed sharply from November's 1.2% and missed market expectations. Cooling activity at year?end reflects weaker consumer demand and external pressures. If January GDP rebounds to the forecasted 0.9%, sterling should strengthen.
13 March, 10:00 / UK / Industrial production, January / prev.: 2.3% / actual: 0.5% / forecast: 0.6% / GBP/USD – up UK industrial production rose 0.5% year-on-year in December 2025. Current growth remains well below the long-term historical average of 1.67%. Despite the positive headline, the sector shows signs of stagnation, given a strong prior base. If January confirms the 0.6% forecast, the pound will get support.
13 March, 13:00 / Euro area / Industrial production, January / prev.: 2.2% / actual: 1.1% / forecast: 1.4% / EUR/USD – up Euro area industrial production rose 1.1% year-on-year in December 2025. While above long?run averages, this reading reflects a slowdown in industrial activity toward year-end. The sector is recovering moderately as it adapts to changing energy costs and external demand. If January production reaches the 1.4% forecast, the euro should strengthen.
13 March, 15:30 / Canada / Employment change, February / prev.: 10.1k / actual: -24.8k / forecast: 10.0k / USD/CAD – down Canadian employment fell by 25,000 in January 2026 — the sharpest monthly drop in recent times. Declines were concentrated in manufacturing, education and government, while construction and agriculture showed partial gains. Ontario experienced the largest fall, pushing the employment rate down to 60.8%. If February's print confirms the 10.0k forecast, the Canadian dollar will strengthen.
13 March, 15:30 / US / GDP growth, Q4 / prev.: 3.8% / actual: 4.4% / forecast: 1.4% / USDX – down The US economy grew 1.4% year-on-year in Q4 2025 after a prior 4.4% increase. The slowdown to the year's low was driven by a government shutdown that sharply reduced public spending and investment. Consumer spending eased, and exports fell 0.9%. Investment in intellectual property and equipment helped support growth. If the 1.4% forecast for Q4 is confirmed, the dollar index will ease.
13 March, 15:30 / US / GDP deflator / prev.: 2.1% / actual: 3.7% / forecast: 2.8% / USDX – up The US GDP deflator rose 3.7% year-on-year in Q4 2025, unchanged from the prior quarter and near historic highs, underscoring persistent inflationary pressure in the economy. Elevated deflator readings reflect sustained cost pressure despite slowing headline GDP growth. If the deflator aligns with the 2.8% forecast, the dollar index would strengthen.
13 March, 17:00 / US / JOLTS vacancies, January / prev.: 6.928m / actual: 6.542m / forecast: 6.700m / USDX – up Open job vacancies in the US fell to 6.542 million in December 2025, the lowest since autumn 2020, well below expectations. The decline stemmed mainly from retail, finance and professional services. Lower labor demand was recorded across regions; hiring and layoffs were broadly unchanged. If January vacancies rise to the forecasted 6.700 million, the dollar index would be supported.
13 March, 17:00 / US / JOLTS quits, January / prev.: 3.193m / actual: 3.204m / forecast: 3.260m / USDX – down Voluntary quits rose slightly to 3.204 million in December 2025 — the highest in six months. The increase was concentrated in retail and information sectors, while business services saw declines. The quit rate remains stable at about 2% for the second month. Regional variation saw Midwestern increases offsetting southern declines. If January quits hit the 3.260 million forecast, the dollar index would ease.
13 March, 17:00 / US / University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, March / prev.: 56.4 / actual: 56.6 / forecast: 55.0 / USDX – down The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index rose to 56.6 in February 2026, near the highest levels in six months. Nearly half of respondents still cite high prices as the biggest strain on household finances. The survey shows a split in perception: optimism rises among high?income households, while lower?income groups see little improvement. One-year inflation expectations fell sharply to 3.4%, the lowest since early last year. If March falls to the 55 forecast, the dollar index would weaken.
13 March, 19:00 / Russia / Consumer inflation, February / prev.: 5.6% / actual: 6.0% / forecast: 5.7% / USD/RUB – up Russia's annual inflation accelerated to 6.0% in January 2026 after a long decline, driven by a VAT increase and constrained production capacity, hitting service prices hardest. Food pressure was moderate as only part of the tax burden was passed to consumers. Month-on-month prices rose 1.6%, confirming stronger inflationary momentum early in the year. If February confirms the 5.7% forecast, USD/RUB will rise.
12 March, 12:30 / UK / Speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey / GBP/USD 12 March, 18:00 / US / Speech by Michelle Bowman, Board of Governors, Federal Reserve / USDX
Speeches by senior central bank officials are also scheduled for these days. Their comments typically trigger FX volatility as they may indicate future policy intentions.
