Trade analysis and trading tips for the British pound

The price test at 1.3344 occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero line, which confirmed a correct entry point for buying the pound. However, no significant upward movement followed.

Published data showed that the UK Construction PMI for June stood at 38.4 points, slightly above May's 38.2, which marked the worst reading in six years. The reasons for weakness are well known, ranging from expensive credit conditions to reduced investment and political uncertainty.

The US session is also expected to be highly active: the ISM services PMI and the composite PMI will be in focus, followed by a speech from FOMC member Christopher Waller. These indicators reflect business sentiment — they are based on surveys of purchasing managers and are among the first to capture shifts in the economic cycle. The 50-point threshold separates expansion from contraction, and the key market reaction is driven by the gap between actual data and forecasts. The British pound is directly influenced by these results: strong services data supports the dollar and may push GBP/USD lower, while weak figures could allow the pair to rebound. Waller's comments will add further volatility.

Regarding the intraday strategy, greater focus will be placed on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy signal

Scenario #1: Buying the pound today is planned at the entry point around 1.3348 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.3378 (thicker green line on the chart). At 1.3378, positions will be closed and reversed into sells, expecting a 30–35 point move in the opposite direction from the level. A stronger rise in the pound is possible in case of weak data. Important: before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario #2: Buying the pound is also planned if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3329 level at a time when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. A move toward 1.3348 and 1.3378 can be expected.

Sell signal

Scenario #1: Selling the pound is planned after a break below the 1.3329 level (red line on the chart), which would lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers is 1.3300, where positions will be closed and immediately reversed into buys (expecting a 20–25 point move in the opposite direction from the level). Downward pressure on the pound will return in the case of strong data. Important: before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started moving downward.

Scenario #2: Selling the pound is also planned if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3348 level at a time when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward 1.3329 and 1.3300 can be expected.

What is shown on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which the instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – projected price level where take profit can be placed or profits manually secured, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which the instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – projected price level where take profit can be placed or profits manually secured, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones.

Important: beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp volatility. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are, from the outset, a losing strategy for intraday traders.