Analysis of trades and trading tips for the European currency

The price test at 1.1608 occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator was only beginning to move down from the zero line, which confirmed the correct entry point to sell the euro and resulted in a 20-pip move down.

On Friday, the dollar strengthened on the back of a significant increase in US industrial production volumes. This rise in the manufacturing sector was an unexpected positive signal for investors worried about a weakening economic outlook. Expansion of production capacity indicates stability in the US economy and fuels optimism about further economic growth. At the same time, statements by Fed officials allowing for the possibility of pausing the rate-cut cycle also contributed to dollar strength.

Today, the focus is on the publication of eurozone inflation statistics for December, including the headline CPI and its core measure. Economists always watch these figures closely in hopes of getting a clearer picture of inflation dynamics in the region. A rise in consumer prices could support the European Central Bank's continued cautious, wait-and-see monetary policy. Conversely, a slowdown in inflation could prompt a reassessment of strategy toward more moderate actions.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Scenarios for buying

Scenario No. 1: today you can buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.1645 (green line on the chart) with a target to rise to 1.1679. At 1.1679, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35-pip move from the entry point. You can count on euro growth only after strong data. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is only just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today if two consecutive tests of 1.1623 occur while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. One can expect a rise to the opposite levels 1.1645 and 1.1679.

Scenarios for selling

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches 1.1623 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1584, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25-pip move in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pair is unlikely to return today. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is only just starting to fall from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if two consecutive tests of 1.1645 occur while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a market reversal downward. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels 1.1623 and 1.1584.

What is on the chart

• Thin green line — entry price at which you can buy the instrument
• Thick green line — suggested Take Profit price or level at which to manually lock in profit, since further rise above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line — entry price at which you can sell the instrument
• Thick red line — suggested Take Profit price or level at which to manually lock in profit, since further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator — when entering the market, it is important to follow the overbought and oversold zones
• Important notes: Beginner forex traders must be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. It is best to be out of the market before major fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit quickly, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
• Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market noise are a losing strategy for the intraday trader.