Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

No macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Monday. Thus, traders will have nothing to react to today. However, it is worth noting that the market continues to ignore most macroeconomic data. Reports that are not of the "first category" have no chance of being recognized by the market. Geopolitics, central bank monetary policy (especially the Federal Reserve), and UK politics remain the main topics for traders.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

The only fundamental event on Monday is the speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde. However, let us remind you that a week and a half ago, the ECB implemented its first policy tightening in three years, and Lagarde clearly indicated that this might not be the last rate hike in 2026. Thus, the ECB's monetary policy stance is currently quite clear, but the market is simply ignoring it, as a tightening by the central bank should strengthen the national currency, which we did not see with the euro.

The geopolitical backdrop remains consistently "conditionally positive." Iran and the U.S. signed an agreement remotely; however, too many important issues remain unresolved. In particular, the "nuclear question" which is not even mentioned in the current text of the agreement. This is the very problem that initiated the war and could cause it to resume at any moment. Negotiations on the nuclear deal did not take place over the weekend as they were supposed to. Israel and Lebanon are attacking each other, as these countries did not sign a ceasefire. Since Lebanon is an ally of Iran, Tehran considers the agreement's terms to have been violated. As a result, the Strait of Hormuz could again be blocked.

General Conclusions:

During the first trading day of the week, both currency pairs may begin to correct after last week's decline. The euro can be traded from the area of 1.1455-1.1474, and the British pound from the area of 1.3259-1.3267. The market has been unjustifiably buying the U.S. dollar in recent days, which could be a trap set by market makers for bears.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is evaluated based on the time it takes to form (bounce or breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a particular level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair may generate many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be overlooked.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be executed only when volatility is good, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.