Kpler, the IMF, and Oxford University recorded a sharp drop in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — down to just 5 vessels per day (from a pre?conflict norm of about 120 vessels) — coinciding with another exchange of strikes between the US and Iran. At the same time, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Donald Trump claim that more than 17 million barrels of oil transited the waterway in a single day, and that the US Navy covertly escorts an average of 30 ships each night. Military escalation and contradictory data pushed Brent crude above $95 per barrel.

Donald Trump suggested on Truth Social renaming the waterway "Trump Strait," declaring full US control — a claim met with industry skepticism. The vice president of the American Petroleum Institute, Mason Hamilton, even dubbed the situation a "Schrodinger Strait" because of the diametrically opposed data. TankerTrackers estimates that after the breakdown of the truce in mid?July, actual oil transportation averaged about 4.9 million barrels per day, far below the figures cited by the US administration.

Analytical services say that remaining commercial traffic is forced to use a northern route along Iran's border, which is under the Islamic Republic's control. Kpler representatives explain that discrepancies in the statistics stem from ships using concealment tactics and turning off their transponders: such voyages are later confirmed and entered into databases retroactively, reflecting actual past barrel movements rather than a real?time surge in traffic. White House pressure on independent tracking agencies has turned into a public political confrontation with shipping operators.

More broadly, Trump's and his team's headline statements have provoked widespread skepticism about the White House's optimistic claims and uncertainty over where the truth lies. Against this backdrop, the market's reaction to comments from US Fed officials looks strikingly different. New York Fed President John Williams says he does not yet see a strong need to raise rates on September 16, and that the high yields on 10?year (4.79%) and 30?year (5.26%) Treasuries reflect fundamental economic strength rather than an inflation shock. US stock indices have been dutifully recovering.

The regional Fed's Beige Book, however, recorded modest growth in economic activity in 10 of 12 districts in July–August. Key drivers included:

• air transportation
• manufacturing (driven by data?center and defense orders)
• nonresidential construction

Meanwhile, the auto market and the housing sector weakened due to expensive credit and fuel. Respondents in many regions also noted rising price pressure from higher energy costs and newly imposed import tariffs. Nevertheless, the US economy is showing greater resilience to commodity shocks intensified by the recent major exchange of fire between the US and Iran, which is prompting capital flows from vulnerable regional currencies into American assets.

September 3

3 September, 01:30 / Australia / Services PMI for August / prev.: 50.5 / actual: 53.6 / forecast: 52.9 / AUD/USD – down Australia's services business activity retreated from a half?year high but remained in expansion. Sector dynamics were influenced by:

• modest growth in business activity and new orders
• staff increases that strained capacity
• higher operating costs due to fuel, freight and raw?material prices

A slowdown in the indicator is forecast for August, which should put pressure on the Australian dollar.

3 September, 03:30 / Japan / Services PMI for August / prev.: 52.2 / actual: 51.2 / forecast: 52.3 / USD/JPY – down

Japan's services activity regained momentum in July, posting its strongest pace since early spring. Improvements were driven by:

• a strong inflow of new domestic orders, the second?best reading since February
• weak external demand and a sharp drop in new export contracts
• restrained hiring amid high costs and Middle East geopolitical tensions

Analysts expect the index to rebound to 52.3 in August. Continued solid services growth would support the yen.

3 September, 04:30 / Australia / Trade balance for July / prev.: -2.367 bn / actual: 1.929 bn / forecast: 1.390 bn / AUD/USD – down

Australia's trade balance unexpectedly returned to a surplus of A$1.93 billion. The positive outcome was supported by:

• a 9.6% jump in exports due to active gold shipments and strong demand for commodities
• a 0.2% decline in imports amid lower fuel shipments and subdued domestic demand

A moderate narrowing of the surplus to A$1.39 billion is forecast for August. If realized, the Australian dollar would come under pressure.

3 September, 04:45 / China / RatingDog Services PMI for August / prev.: 54.1 / actual: 50.4 / forecast: 50.6 / Brent – up, USD/CNY – down

RatingDog's China services PMI slowed sharply in July, marking the weakest growth since autumn 2024. Weakness was driven by:

• new orders slowing to a four?month low amid weak domestic demand
• rising operating costs, including diesel, raw materials and advertising
• a drop in business sentiment in the sector to its lowest level since early 2020

At the same time, foreign demand continued to improve, lifting new export orders and selling prices. A modest rise to 50.6 is forecast for August. If data match the forecast, the subdued services sector will continue to weigh on the yuan and on oil prices.

3 September, 10:55 / Germany / Services PMI for August / prev.: 48.6 / actual: 49.8 / forecast: 48.5 / EUR/USD – down Germany's services activity continued to decline, staying below the neutral mark. The sector was affected by:

• persistent overall weakness in the services market amid cautious spending
• slowing growth in selling prices, easing price pressure on customers
• companies expanding payrolls for the first time in eight months
• business confidence remaining at prior months' levels

Analysts expect the reading to fall in August. If negative forecasts materialize, the euro will be under pressure.

3 September, 11:00 / Eurozone / Services PMI for August / prev.: 49.4 / actual: 51.7 / forecast: 51.7 / EUR/USD – up The eurozone services activity index is holding near its highest levels since late winter. The sector was supported by:

• a surge in tourist spending outside Germany and France
• stable inflows of new export orders and accelerated job creation
• a slowdown in selling?price growth to the weakest pace since the start of the year

Business sentiment among service firms eased slightly amid cautious outlooks for the year ahead. If the August reading stays at this level, it would confirm services' resilience and support the euro.

3 September, 11:00 / Eurozone / Services PMI for August / prev.: 49.4 / actual: 51.7 / forecast: 51.7 / EUR/USD – up

The eurozone services activity index is holding near its highest levels since late winter. The sector was supported by:

• a surge in tourist spending outside Germany and France
• stable inflows of new export orders and accelerated job creation
• a slowdown in selling?price growth to the weakest pace since the start of the year

Business sentiment among service firms eased slightly amid cautious outlooks for the year ahead. If the August reading stays at this level, it would confirm services' resilience and support the euro.

3 September, 12:00 / Eurozone / Producer Price Index (PPI) for July / prev.: 5.9% / actual: 4.6% / forecast: 4.7% / EUR/USD – down

Eurozone producer prices slowed to 4.6% in June, retreating from May peaks. The index points to a local easing of manufacturing inflation and some relief in corporate cost pressures. A small pickup in inflation is expected in July. If the forecast materializes, the euro will receive support.

3 September, 16:00 / Germany / New passenger car registrations in August / prev.: 15.7% / actual: 1.2% / forecast: 3.6% / EUR/USD – up

New passenger car registrations in Germany plunged, erasing almost all of May's gains in July. The drop in auto?market demand pointed to weakening consumer confidence and caution around major purchases. Nevertheless, registrations are expected to recover to 3.6% in August. Confirmation of that result could lend confidence to the euro.

3 September, 15:30 / US / Challenger job cuts in August / prev.: 45,849 / actual: 33,429 / forecast: 62.0k / USDX (6?currency USD index) – up

US employers announced the smallest number of job cuts in two years. Labor?market dynamics were influenced by:

• tech sector leading layoffs (-9,867)
• active staff replacement driven by artificial intelligence (-10.97k roles)
• reductions in finance (-3,157), government (-2,962) and services (-2,581)
• a 25% rise in hiring plans and announcements of 16,095 new jobs

The market is pricing a jump in cuts to 62.0k for August. Confirmation of that trend would signal labor?market tightening and weigh on the dollar.

3 September, 15:30 / Canada / Merchandise trade balance for July / prev.: 3.70 bn CAD / actual: 3.86 bn CAD / forecast: 3.20 bn CAD / USD/CAD – up

Canada's trade surplus rose to its highest level in four years. The wider surplus was driven by:

• a jump in exports to a record CAD 77.5 bn amid a boom in gold (+27.9%) and metals (+17.3%) sales
• a 10% drop in energy exports due to lower global hydrocarbon prices
• record?high imports of CAD 73.6 bn, pushed by exchange?rate effects from a weaker Canadian dollar

A narrowing of the trade balance to CAD 3.20 bn is forecast for August. If realized, the Canadian dollar would come under pressure, and USD/CAD would rise.

3 September, 15:30 / US / Merchandise trade balance for July / prev.: -77.6 bn USD / actual: -73.3 bn USD / forecast: -86.4 bn USD / USDX (6?currency USD index) – down The U.S. trade deficit narrowed markedly. The improvement was supported by:

• a sharp 1.8% drop in imports driven by lower purchases of consumer goods, computers and pharmaceuticals
• a 0.9% fall in exports amid weaker shipments of industrial goods, fuel oil and crude oil
• normalization of trade flows after a period of aggressive imports last year

Analysts expect the deficit to widen to $86.4 bn in July. If the forecast proves correct, the dollar could come under pressure.

3 September, 15:30 / US / Initial jobless claims / prev.: 207k / actual: 203k / forecast: 205k / USDX (6?currency USD index) – down

New claims for US unemployment benefits continued to fall, staying near summer lows. Labor?market features include:

• a drop in continuing claims by 18k (to 1.778m)
• a fall in claims from government workers to the lowest level since 2024
• sustained demand for labor and signs of near?full employment in the economy

Analysts forecast a modest rise in claims to 205k for the next release. The dollar may react by weakening to this report.

3 September, 16:30 / Canada / Services PMI for August / prev.: 47.1 / actual: 49.1 / forecast: 49.5 / USD/CAD – down Canada's services business activity rose to 49.1 in July, easing the pace of contraction. Sector dynamics were affected by:

• restrained activity due to external tariffs and geopolitics
• slowing declines in output and new orders
• business confidence falling to a year?low
• persistently high costs for fuel, energy and wages

A further rise in the index is forecast for August. If confirmed, the Canadian dollar could strengthen and USD/CAD decline.

3 September, 16:45 / US / S&P Global Services PMI for August / prev.: 51.2 / actual: 54.6 / forecast: 56.8 / USDX (6?currency USD index) – up

US services activity showed a sharp acceleration in July, the strongest pace in a long time. Support came from:

• a powerful inflow of new orders and an expanding backlog
• solid hiring and payroll growth
• slowing input?cost growth and a half?year low in cost inflation
• rising business confidence for the third month running

The index is forecast to rise to 56.8 in August. If the forecast is met, the US dollar will receive good support.

3 September, 17:00 / US / ISM Non?Manufacturing Business Activity Index for August / prev.: 54.0 / actual: 54.1 / forecast: 53.8 / USDX (6?currency USD index) – down

July's ISM services index also kept a positive tone, confirming continued expansion in the sector. The reading reflected:

• acceleration in business activity (59.1) and new orders (57.2)
• additional boost from the FIFA World Cup hosting
• employment returning to contraction (47.4)
• rising price pressure on fuel and plastics to 70.3

Analysts expect the index to correct to 53.8 in August. In that case, the US dollar could be under pressure.

3 September, 17:00 / US / ISM Non?Manufacturing Employment Index for August / prev.: 51.2 / actual: 47.4 / forecast: 51.8 / USDX (6?currency USD index) – up

In July, the ISM non?manufacturing employment index plunged below the neutral mark, ending a short run?up. The reading fell from long?run averages, indicating a pause in services hiring. The index is forecast to return to growth in August. A rebound in services hiring would push the dollar higher.

4 September

4 September, 02:30 / Japan / Household spending in July / prev.: -0.4% / actual: -3.3% / forecast: -1.6% / USD/JPY – down Japanese household spending plunged in June, marking the seventh month of negative readings. The decline in consumer demand was driven by:

• falls in spending on clothing (-19.9%), furniture (-11.4%) and utilities (-7.1%)
• reductions in food (-2.5%) and transport (-5.7%) outlays
• a 6.4% month?on?month drop in seasonally adjusted spending

Housing (+3.6%) and culture (+0.4%) supported the figure. A partial recovery is expected in July, which would significantly strengthen the yen versus the dollar.

4 September, 09:00 / Germany / Volume of factory orders in July / prev.: 0.3% / actual: 0% / forecast: -2.0% / EUR/USD – down German industrial orders stalled at zero in June, holding back the sector's recovery. Demand structure showed:

• jumps in orders for electronic equipment (+22.7%) and machinery (+12.7%)
• a 7.8% rise in domestic demand alongside a 14.0% drop in orders from the eurozone
• a collapse in military and transport equipment orders (-41.7%) after a previous surge

Analysts expect a sharper fall in orders in July, which would weigh on the euro and push EUR/USD down.

4 September, 10:30 / Eurozone / Construction PMI for August / prev.: 42.8 / actual: 44.3 / forecast: 44.0 / EUR/USD – down The eurozone construction PMI turned up in July, but the sector remains in deep contraction. The picture was shaped by:

• falling demand and sharper declines in new orders across major economies
• a sixth consecutive month of job cuts concentrated in Germany
• easing price pressure as the energy crisis abates
• a dip in business optimism to a three?month low

A further decline is forecast for August. If realized, the euro could come under pressure.

4 September, 10:30 / Germany / Construction PMI for August / prev.: 44.8 / actual: 42.1 / forecast: 42.0 / EUR/USD – down The downturn in Germany's construction sector earlier hit a three?month low. The deterioration was driven by:

• a deep slump in activity across residential and commercial segments
• a decline in new orders as high prices and postponed client decisions weighed on demand
• renewed growth only in civil engineering
• easing input?cost inflation for raw materials to a five?month low

The indicator is expected to remain weak at 42.0 in August. If so, the euro will likely continue to lose ground.

4 September, 11:00 / United Kingdom / New passenger car registrations in August / prev.: 11.4% / actual: 11.7% / forecast: 11.0% / GBP/USD – down

New car sales in the UK posted the strongest mid?summer result in years. The market was supported by:

• higher registrations across all buyer categories, including a 61.3% jump in the commercial segment
• a 44.5% surge in electric?vehicle sales, which accounted for 27.5% of total volume
• growth of hybrids to 28.1% of total sales

Analysts expect a slowdown to 11.0% growth in August. A cooling auto market could weigh on the pound.

4 September, 11:30 / United Kingdom / Construction PMI for August / prev.: 38.4 / actual: 44.7 / forecast: 45.0 / GBP/USD – up

In July, the UK construction sector continued recovering from the May slump, rising to 44.7. Positive changes were supported by:

• slowing declines in commercial, residential and civil construction
• a moderation in the fall of new orders amid increased tender activity
• easing inflation of raw?material and energy costs
• a predominance of positive business expectations for the coming months

A modest rise to 45.0 is forecast for August. If realized, this would be a boost for the pound.

4 September, 12:00 / Eurozone / Retail sales for July / prev.: 1.9% / actual: 0.7% / forecast: 0.9% / EUR/USD – up

Retail?sales growth in the eurozone slowed sharply, recording one of the weakest results in recent years. The reading reflects:

• continued consumer caution amid high expenses
• retail turnover lagging long?run historical norms

Markets expect retail sales to accelerate to 0.9% in July. If confirmed, a pickup in consumer activity would support the euro.

4 September, 15:30 / Canada / Change in employment for August / prev.: 18.2k / actual: 75.1k / forecast: 15.8k / USD/CAD – up

Employment in Canada jumped sharply in July, far exceeding expectations. Job growth was driven by:

• a surge in private?sector hiring (+57.9k) offsetting public?sector losses (-27k)
• strong recruitment in trade, finance (+18k), consulting (+17k) and construction (+16k)
• solid regional gains in Ontario (+52k) and British Columbia (+18k)

A slowdown to 15.8k is forecast for August. If realized, the Canadian dollar could come under pressure, and USD/CAD would move higher.

4 September, 15:30 / US / Government nonfarm payrolls for August / prev.: 20k / actual: -23k / forecast: 45k / USDX (6?currency USD index) – up

The latest U.S. labor?market report included downward revisions totaling 79k jobs for the reference period. Major adjustments by industry included:

• retail (-154.6k)
• private education and health (-96k)
• wholesale trade (-86.2k)
• professional services (-76k)
• manufacturing (-67k)
• transportation & warehousing (+135.1k)
• government (+99k)
• finance (+85k)

Markets expect a rebound to a 45k payroll gain in August. If that forecast is met, solid hiring would support the US dollar.

4 September, 15:30 / US / Average hourly earnings for August / prev.: 3.4% / actual: 3.2% / forecast: 3.3% / USDX (6?currency USD index) – up

Year?on?year growth in average hourly earnings slowed to 3.2%, missing estimates. Slowing wage growth signals a cooling labor market and reduced wage?driven inflationary pressure. A slight pickup to 3.3% is forecast for August. If realized, the dollar could receive support.

4 September, 17:00 / Canada / Ivey Business Activity Index for August / prev.: 56.2 / actual: 55.1 / forecast: 56.2 / USD/CAD – down Canada's Ivey business?activity index fell to 55.1, a low since March. The slowdown reflected:

• slower employment growth (to 52.2)
• accelerating price pressures and higher input?cost inflation (75.5)
• rising inventory building (to 54.9)

A return to 56.2 is forecast for August. If the index recovers, the Canadian dollar could strengthen.

3 Sept, 04:00 / Australia / Speech by Brad Jones of the Reserve Bank of Australia / AUD/USD 3 Sept, 08:15 / Australia / Speech by RBA Deputy Governor for Economics Sarah Hunter / AUD/USD 3 Sept, 15:30 / US / Speech by Fed Governor Christopher Waller / USDX 3 Sept, 22:00 / US / Speech by Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack / USDX 4 Sept, 11:50 / United Kingdom / Speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey / GBP/USD 4 Sept, 12:00 / Eurozone / Speech by Philip Lane of the ECB Supervisory Board / EUR/USD

Speeches by senior central bank officials are also scheduled for these days. Their comments often trigger FX volatility as they can signal future rate intentions.