Trade Breakdown and Trading Advice for the British Pound

The test of the 1.3389 price level occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero line, which confirmed a correct entry point for selling the pound. However, the pair did not move into a strong decline, which ultimately resulted in losses being fixed.

Considering that there will also be no US statistics released in the second half of the day, the focus will remain on Greenland, Trump's tariffs against the EU, and the possible retaliatory measures by European politicians. The issue of a potential purchase of Greenland by the United States—however unconventional it may seem—added extra nervousness to the markets last week. Although the probability of a successful deal appears extremely low, the very discussion of such a possibility highlights the unpredictability of the Trump administration's foreign policy. Investors are now closely watching the reaction of Denmark and international organizations, assessing the possible consequences for geopolitical stability.

At the same time, tensions in trade relations between the US and the European Union have intensified. Trump's promises to impose new tariffs have put pressure on the US dollar. In the absence of important US macroeconomic data, political factors will clearly play a key role in shaping currency market dynamics.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1:

Today, I plan to buy the pound when the entry point around 1.3414 is reached (green line on the chart), with a growth target at 1.3445 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3445, I will exit long positions and open sell positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point move from that level. Further growth of the pound can also be expected today.Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2:

I also plan to buy the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.3383 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels 1.3414 and 1.3445 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1:

Today, I plan to sell the pound after an update (break) of the 1.3383 level (red line on the chart), which would lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3354 level, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open buy positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 point move from that level. Pressure on the pound is unlikely to return today.Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to fall from it.

Scenario No. 2:

I also plan to sell the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.3414 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels 1.3383 and 1.3354 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument
• Thick green line – estimated price where Take Profit can be set or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument
• Thick red line – estimated price where Take Profit can be set or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones

Important:

Beginner Forex traders must be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly—especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.