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Moody’s upgrades Argentina to B3, forecasting 3.4% GDP growth in 2026
Moody’s Ratings upgraded Argentina’s long-term sovereign ratings in local and foreign currency debt from Caa1 to B3 and changed the outlook from stable to positive. Analysts said the default risk has declined materially as macroeconomic stabilization moved beyond its initial phase and core indicators showed sustained improvement. Key factors strengthening investor confidence included a stable budget surplus, a steady decline in inflation, the end of monetary financing, and a progressive liberalization of the economy that reduced overall macroeconomic volatility.
The country’s external position has strengthened significantly thanks to rising exports in agriculture, industry, and services and to the transformation of the energy sector from a fiscal drain into a growing surplus. A government program to spur large projects, known as RIGI, has already attracted a pipeline of projects totaling $141.7 billion, of which initiatives worth $45 billion are under active implementation. This enabled the Central Bank of Argentina to accumulate more than $11 billion in foreign currency by mid-year without putting pressure on the national exchange rate.
Moody’s projects Argentine GDP growth of 3.4% in 2026 and 3.5% in 2027. The positive outlook reflects expectations of further strengthening of the credit profile as external structural gains combine with disinflation and a recovery in real household incomes. While risks remain ahead of the 2027 general election, the agency said the range of possible political scenarios has narrowed significantly compared with prior cycles, substantially raising the likelihood of policy continuity.
Published 24 July 2026
© InstaFintech Group
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© InstaFintech Group
