Oil is trading in a narrow range, seeking equilibrium after a historic quarterly crash. Brent has surpassed $72 per barrel, while WTI holds around $69 per barrel. The market is grappling with two key factors pulling in the same direction. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continues, and OPEC+ has indicated an increase in supply. Both signals are fundamentally bearish, and only the residual geopolitical premium is keeping prices from falling more deeply.

The restoration of transit through the Strait continues, although not without nervousness. On Sunday, signs of recovery in shipping along the U.S. guarded corridor emerged, a day after several vessels made inexplicable U-turns. Western naval forces continue to assert that there is a significant threat and that the central part of the strait is mined, causing ships to avoid the attention of Iranian military forces. This duality is important. Physically, oil is flowing into the market, but lingering fears about the route's safety prevent prices from collapsing completely.

The OPEC+ decision has added another bearish argument. Seven countries led by Saudi Arabia and Russia have agreed to increase quotas by another 188,000 barrels per day, continuing the easing of restrictions introduced a few years ago. While these barrels are largely theoretical at this point, the signal itself is significant. The group is demonstrating a clear desire to increase production as the situation normalizes. The largest producers in the Gulf are already recovering quickly. Saudi Arabia's exports have already approached pre-war levels, and the UAE, which exited OPEC during the conflict, has also resumed oil exports.

It is no surprise that Wall Street banks are bearish and predicting further declines. Brent fell by 30% in the second quarter following a temporary peace agreement, and Citigroup is already pointing to a possible return to $60 by the end of the year. All of this indicates that while the political backdrop remains tense, it is not currently hindering normalization.

As for the current technical picture of oil, buyers need to break through the nearest resistance at $69.58. This will allow them to target $71.69, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The furthest target will be the $73.79 area. In the event of an oil price drop, bears will attempt to regain control over $67.22. If this is achieved, a breakout of this range will deal a serious blow to the bulls' positions and push oil down to a low of $63.79, with the potential to reach $59.96.